Machine learning based on clinical characteristics and chest CT quantitative measurements for prediction of adverse clinical outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a machine learning model for the prediction of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We included 424 patients with non-severe COVID-19 on admission from January 17, 2020, to February 17, 2020, in the primary cohort of this retrospective multicenter study. The extent of lung involvement was quantified on chest CT images by a deep learning-based framework. The composite endpoint was the occurrence of severe or critical COVID-19 or death during hospitalization. The optimal machine learning classifier and feature subset were selected for model construction. The performance was further tested in an external validation cohort consisting of 98 patients. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the prevalence of adverse outcomes (8.7% vs. 8.2%, p = 0.858) between the primary and validation cohorts. The machine learning method extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and optimal feature subset including lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), presence of comorbidity, CT lesion ratio (lesion%), and hypersensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) were selected for model construction. The XGBoost classifier based on the optimal feature subset performed well for the prediction of developing adverse outcomes in the primary and validation cohorts, with AUCs of 0.959 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.936-0.976) and 0.953 (95% CI: 0.891-0.986), respectively. Furthermore, the XGBoost classifier also showed clinical usefulness. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a machine learning model that could be effectively used as a predictor of adverse outcomes in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, opening up the possibility for patient stratification and treatment allocation. KEY POINTS: • Developing an individually prognostic model for COVID-19 has the potential to allow efficient allocation of medical resources. • We proposed a deep learning-based framework for accurate lung involvement quantification on chest CT images. • Machine learning based on clinical and CT variables can facilitate the prediction of adverse outcomes of COVID-19.

Dual-branch combination network (DCN): Towards accurate diagnosis and lesion segmentation of COVID-19 using CT images.

The recent global outbreak and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) makes it an imperative to develop accurate and efficient diagnostic tools for the disease as medical resources are getting increasingly constrained. Artificial intelligence (AI)-aided tools have exhibited desirable potential; for example, chest computed tomography (CT) has been demonstrated to play a major role in the diagnosis and evaluation of COVID-19. However, developing a CT-based AI diagnostic system for the disease detection has faced considerable challenges, which is mainly due to the lack of adequate manually-delineated samples for training, as well as the requirement of sufficient sensitivity to subtle lesions in the early infection stages. In this study, we developed a dual-branch combination network (DCN) for COVID-19 diagnosis that can simultaneously achieve individual-level classification and lesion segmentation. To focus the classification branch more intensively on the lesion areas, a novel lesion attention module was developed to integrate the intermediate segmentation results. Furthermore, to manage the potential influence of different imaging parameters from individual facilities, a slice probability mapping method was proposed to learn the transformation from slice-level to individual-level classification. We conducted experiments on a large dataset of 1202 subjects from ten institutes in China. The results demonstrated that 1) the proposed DCN attained a classification accuracy of 96.74% on the internal dataset and 92.87% on the external validation dataset, thereby outperforming other models; 2) DCN obtained comparable performance with fewer samples and exhibited higher sensitivity, especially in subtle lesion detection; and 3) DCN provided good interpretability on the loci of infection compared to other deep models due to its classification guided by high-level semantic information. An online CT-based diagnostic platform for COVID-19 derived from our proposed framework is now available.